The General Authority for Statistics said on Sunday, 1 November 2026, that non-oil activities grew 1.9% in the third quarter from a year earlier, more than double the 0.9% pace of the second quarter, according to its flash estimates.
Real gross domestic product shrank 3.8% year on year, a smaller fall than the 4.7% recorded in the second quarter. The decline reflects a 20.4% drop in oil activities and a 2.7% drop in government activities. In terms of contribution, oil took 4.7 percentage points off the annual rate and government activities 0.4 points, while non-oil activities added 1.1 points and net taxes on products about 0.1.
The quarterly picture was stronger. Seasonally adjusted real GDP rose 1.3% from the second quarter, led by a 5.7% rise in oil activities and 0.6% in non-oil activities, while government activities slipped 1.2%.
Forward estimates point to a rebound. The Ministry of Finance's preliminary figures show the economy contracting 3.6% this year, then growing 12.8% in 2027, 3.9% in 2028 and 5.7% in 2029. The International Monetary Fund projected 7.9% growth for 2027 in October.
Business surveys also held up. The Riyad Bank Purchasing Managers' Index stood at 55.3 in September, a sixth straight month of expansion, economist Dr Abdullah Al-Mir of KFUPM told Asharq Al-Awsat. Flash estimates are an early reading, and fuller figures follow.
