What did the latest US price data show? The Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday, 10 November 2026, that the consumer price index rose 0.4% in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, after a 0.6% gain in September. Economists had expected 0.3%.
What about core inflation? The index excluding food and energy rose 0.3% for the third month in a row, against forecasts of 0.2%. Food prices rose 0.5%, energy 0.7% and shelter 0.3%, with shelter accounting for more than thirty percent of the monthly increase.
Why is there no annual rate this time? The BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 because of a lapse in government funding, so it could not publish 12-month changes for most indexes.
What does it mean for interest rates? The figures strengthened bets that the Federal Reserve will raise rates at its 8 to 9 December meeting. CME Group's FedWatch tool showed an 87% chance of a quarter-point hike to a range of 4% to 4.25%, and about 13% for a half-point move, with the odds of no change falling to zero. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in London the same day, "I would still support a 25 basis point increase in the FOMC's policy rate at our December meeting," adding that a half-point hike should be considered if core prices rose 0.3% or more.
How did markets react? The S&P 500, the Dow and the Nasdaq each fell more than 0.4% on Tuesday morning, and rate-hike bets kept pressure on gold, which fell below 4,000 dollars an ounce on Thursday, 12 November.
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fox Business, Reuters, CME Group, Kitco
