Saudi Arabia’s banking sector is heading into what analysts broadly expect to be a strong first quarter for 2026, with Al Rajhi Bank projected to lead earnings growth among the Kingdom’s major lenders. Research teams at SICO Bank and Qimam Financial have both released earnings previews placing Al Rajhi Bank’s Q1 2026 net profit between SAR 6.32 billion and SAR 6.41 billion — a year-on-year increase of between 7 and 9 percent.
Analyst Forecasts Point to Steady Growth
SICO Bank’s preview projects Al Rajhi’s Q1 2026 net profit at approximately SAR 6.32 billion, reflecting 7 percent growth versus the same period in 2025. Qimam Financial’s estimate is slightly more optimistic at SAR 6.41 billion, implying a 9 percent year-on-year increase — a figure underpinned by the firm’s positive outlook on the bank’s mortgage financing book and continued expansion in retail banking volumes.
The upcoming results will be measured against a strong comparable base. In Q1 2025, Al Rajhi Bank reported SAR 5.91 billion in net profit, a milestone quarter in which the bank’s total assets crossed the one trillion riyal mark for the first time — a threshold that reinforced its status as one of the largest Sharia-compliant financial institutions in the world.
A Broadly Constructive Sector Picture
Al Rajhi Bank’s expected performance sits within a broader banking environment that analysts describe as fundamentally sound. Saudi National Bank is forecast to report SAR 5.92 billion for the quarter, while Riyad Bank is projected to post SAR 2.52 billion and Alinma Bank is expected to deliver a 9 percent year-on-year earnings increase. The collective picture reflects a sector benefiting from sustained credit demand, active mortgage lending, and the ongoing economic momentum generated by Vision 2030 projects across the Kingdom.
Within the broader Tadawul universe, the technology and healthcare segments are also expected to contribute positively to first-quarter results, with Maaden forecast to see profits rise by as much as 82 percent year-on-year, driven by strong commodity prices and operational improvements.
Al Rajhi’s Position in the Kingdom’s Financial Landscape
Operating on a fully Sharia-compliant model, Al Rajhi Bank occupies a distinct and dominant position in Saudi Arabia’s retail and corporate banking landscape. Its continued investment in digital banking infrastructure and mortgage financing has consistently supported earnings growth, even in periods of global financial uncertainty. With the formal Q1 2026 results expected in the coming days, institutional and individual investors on Tadawul are closely monitoring the bank’s disclosures as a key indicator of sector health heading into the second half of the year.
